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Mike Paulenoff

Volatile Swings Within ES Recovery Rally

Tue Apr 23rd 2024
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 23, 2024-- Pre-Market Update: ES remains in the grasp of a recovery rally off of last Friday's lows, but the price path so far has been anything but a straight-line advance.My attached Hourly Chart of ES shows the volatile swings within the recovery rally from Friday's low at 4963.50 to yest's high at 5076.75 (+2.3%), which my pattern work indicates represents the first stage of a still-developing recovery rally period that projects EITHER to 5095-5125 OR to 5150 to 5170 to test last week's breakdown plateau.

Market Moves Higher, But Still Under The Key Pivot For Now

Mon Apr 22nd 2024
Today we saw the market open up flat but move up in the later part of the day. We are still, however, under the key resistance/pivot zone that we will need to break to give us a signal that we have indeed put in a bottom in all of the wave a. So while this is certainly a good start to a potential bottom, until we can actually get through that pivot zone I still can't rule out that we will see another lower low before a bottom in the wave a is seen.

Bouncing in a B-wave

Tue Apr 23rd 2024
The market followed through higher today, following expectations for a larger b-wave bounce filling out off last week's low, and price currently finishing up what should be wave (a) of b. Based on that expectation, 5123 is now the next fib resistance above, otherwise a break below 5080 is needed as confirmation of a local top and the start to wave (b) of b. The alternative is that price is further along in the circle b-wave and attempting to complete it sooner and a more direct fashion.

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