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Mike Paulenoff

Eye On Oil & ES Ahead Of First Warsh Statement

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  June 17, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- Today is and will be all about new Fed Head Kevin Warsh's impact on the FOMC, on the wording of his first monetary policy statement, and on the markets during his inaugural press conference...

Trying To Make It More Reliable

As I outlined over the weekend, the potential 1-2 downside structure was not terribly reliable due to the wave 1 being a potential leading diagonal.  And, as I have noted many times before, leading diagonals are not reliable since they resemble corrective structures and often invalidate as leading diagonals.Therefore, we wanted to wait for another 5-wave decline to signal a 1-2, i-ii structure is developing.   With today’s decline, have that potential.

Market at First Key Inflection Point to the Downside

Today, the market moved sharply lower, opening the door for the larger wave (b) top to be in place at the 6/15 high. With that said, we still only have three waves down off that high so far and are currently sitting at several key Fibonacci support levels that will need to break to the downside to keep that path in play. If we are unable to break those levels and instead turn back higher, then it would open the door to a few different paths that could still ultimately take this market higher.

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