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April Crude Oil needs to close under $73/bbl to trigger an initial technical "warning" that the Dec 2025-present advance from $54.63 to $77.50 is exhausted. In the absence of a close under $73.00, April Crude points next to $79-$82, indicating that a wider war premium is being built into the price of oil for nearest delivery... Last is $77.30...
After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.
While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it. First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures. Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2. And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.
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