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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- In the past 24 hours, two technology powerhouses, ASML and TSM, reported much better-than-expected Earnings, but in BOTH CASES, investors have pummeled their respective stocks (coming days after the debacle in IBM). Although the indices have not violated major support so far, this behavior under the hood makes me "technically nervous" that the dominant uptrend patterns are weakening within a developing sell-the-great Earnings-news" set-up in an increasingly frothy market.
Overnight, we tested the high that was struck on 7/10, only to be followed by a sloppy move lower. We are still over the key support zone I have been laying out over the past several days, and yet under key overhead resistance. So with that, the market continues to move sideways on what is still very sloppy and unreliable action, leaving us yet again in the same spot from an analysis perspective and with the parameters still unchanged. As shown on the ES chart, I still have support sitting in the 7548-7485 zone.
Five Trades. One Week. No Fluff.Here’s exactly what went down in the ES room this week:Jul 14 — Long #1: +25% return on riskJul 14 — Long #2: +25% return on riskJul 16 — Long: +120% return on riskJul 17 — Long #1: +142% return on riskJul 17 — Long #2: +25% return on riskThe ES is down –1.2% on the week. We don’t care. Direction isn’t the edge—structure is.Expected Value Win RateMost traders fixate on win rate. We fixate on Expected Value (EV).EV is what keeps you solvent long-term.
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