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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
After moving higher yesterday and into the retracement zone for the blue wave b, the market moved slightly lower today after stopping at the 61.8 retracement level right on the nose. While holding and turning at an expected retracement fib is typically a good early signal that the primary count may indeed be following through, we still do not have a clear five-wave move down off of that level.We could make the case that we have five down in leading diagonal form off of the overnight high in the ES.
For those interested in the cryptocurrency space, Ryan is hosting his monthly public webinar this morning. You can register for that here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/trading-room/post/10376763. In Case You Missed It…SPX dropped approximately 6 points this week, essentially closing unchanged for the week. It is still basically in a sideways trend since May. NDX is similarly postured.Despite the onslaught of retail news the week, SPX closed flat.
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