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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
After testing the 7660–7640 support zone on the ES chart over the past several sessions, the market finally broke below that zone and moved through the lower pivot at 7611. This provides further confirmation that we are following the downside pattern.While we have not yet broken below the ultimate support level for the alternate wave (iv) count, today’s action supports the need for further downside before a lasting bottom is found. Keep in mind, however, that we are likely working on an ending diagonal down from the 8/13 high.
Thus far, the metals have held where they have needed to for their respective 2nd/b-waves. But, we did not get a clear 5 up in standard fashion. Can we call it a leading diagonal? Sure. But, as you know, they are not reliable enough for me. So, I am going to be a bit more cautious until we invalidate downside potentials. In GDX, that means a break out over 101.83. In gold, that means a break out over 4560. In silver it means a break out over 69.
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