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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- In the past 24 hours, two technology powerhouses, ASML and TSM, reported much better-than-expected Earnings, but in BOTH CASES, investors have pummeled their respective stocks (coming days after the debacle in IBM). Although the indices have not violated major support so far, this behavior under the hood makes me "technically nervous" that the dominant uptrend patterns are weakening within a developing sell-the-great Earnings-news" set-up in an increasingly frothy market.
Here is a thing that does not get said enough about falling stocks.Sometimes a decline is not a verdict. Sometimes it is just an empty room.One group of people is leaving. Another group has not shown up yet. And in the space between them, price does what price does when there is nobody standing underneath it.That, I think, is Netflix right now.
After moving higher overnight and into the morning session, the market turned lower, and we are now testing last week's low. That low represents a fairly significant inflection point, and if we see a break of that level, it would suggest that we have begun the next leg down of this move. If we manage to hold that low and turn back higher on five waves, then we may still need to push back over today's high before turning down once again.
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