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Monthly QQQ Update:Apart from fundamental analysis, spin, and hype about the efficacy of AI use cases, funding, eventual revenues, and, yes, profitability, the Monthly Technical Setup in QQQ is warning us that, atop a 37% upmove from the March 2026 low, a 93% advance from the April 2023 low, and a 200% bull move from the October 2022 low, the price structure hit an ALL Time New High at 762.86 in October 2026, and during the same month, rolled over into a bout of weakness that left behind a MONTHLY Bearish Engulfing Candle!.
This has been quite the bull market. We have seen VERY shallow retracement over these last several years and the bulls have pushed these markets to extremes which I was not able to foresee back in 2020 when we began looking much higher at the Covid lows. At the time, my maximum expectation was around the 6000SPX region from the 2200SPX lows.Needless to say, all good things must come to an end.
Today, we saw a very muted reaction off of the lows after yesterday's sharp drop lower. This reaction is certainly not a positive development for the green count, which needs to both hold the 7235 low and give us a five-wave move to the upside to remain operative. So, with the inability to provide us with that five-wave move, I have to move to the red count as my base case for the time being and adopt the green count as an alternate path.
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