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Cash Bitcoin and MSTR Update: Truth be told, the pattern carved out by BTC from its Feb. 2026 low at 60,070 continues to "impress me" as exhibiting counter-trend form, and as such, a recovery rally that is entering its 6th week. That said, however, strength from current levels of 70,700 that hurdles and sustains above the recent high at 74,100 will argue for an upside extension of the counter-trend upmove toward 80,500-82,500. At this juncture, a bout of weakness that breaks 65,000 will be problematic for BTC... As for MSTR, it too has carved out a counter-trend recovery rally off its February 2026 low at 100.
Bitcoin: And Another Bites The Dust:"Another what?" you might ask. Another micro count. Last week, a micro count for an immediate decline was presented in black which required Bitcoin to maintain below the 2/25 high around $70k. The other immediate count, displayed in purple, showed a possible path up to $77k+ from the 2/24 low. First, price broke the 2/25 high and then continued up through the 2/8 high providing the first evidence of potential continuation up from the February low.
With the market finally breaking support, it did not fall away as I would have normally expected. It tells me that the buy-the-dip crowd is still very much alive and well. But, that does not change my view of the larger structure.The break of the support makes it much more likely that we are within the larger degree pullback, for which I have been expecting for some time. But, with the continued up/down action, it seems to suggest the c-wave of this (a) wave pullback is taking shape as an ending diagonal.
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