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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! August 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Where to begin this AM? There is a lot going on, which has become the rule, rather than the exception, during the extremely activist Trump Administration...-- POTUS announces 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, except for those companies that "manufacture or commit to manufacturing in the U.S., such as AAPL...-- Late yesterday, from the Oval Office, AAPL announced an additional $100 billion investment in the U.S. (totalling $600 billion) to build iPhones and Apple Watches on American soil... (see my char work on AAPL and GLW below)...
With the GDX moving beyond my prior expectation, the question that is on everyone minds is what this means to the overall chart? And, the basic answer is “not very much.”You see, either this rally is an expanded b-wave, or it is simply a continuation of the 3rd wave. In both cases, we likely still see a sizeable decline before the 5th wave rally takes hold. The main reason I am assuming that the 5th wave has not begun is because we have seen no consolidation that would be deep enough or large enough to be considered the wave 4.
Today, we saw the market continue its move higher into b-wave territory, only to turn down right at key resistance and push lower into the afternoon session. As it stands, we now have what appears to be a fairly clean three-wave move up off last week’s low, giving us an early indication that a top may have been struck in this b-wave.That said, we still need further confirmation. Specifically, we want to see a break of the key support levels I outlined yesterday to strengthen the case that wave b has indeed completed.
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