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Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Today we saw the market continue to push lower as we are now testing the lower end of support for the potential wave (iv) per the yellow count. If the market is able to hold around this region and turn higher on five waves, then we still can see this continue to push higher. However, a break of support here would open the door for a larger degree top to be in place for the white wave (b).
Some stocks seem priced cheap because the market has overreacted to the downside. Others are cheap because the business is not earning enough to justify a higher price. Telling those two situations apart is most of the work, and for a long period of time LYB sat squarely in the second group.The math was not subtle. LYB posted a net loss in 2025 on falling revenue. The dividend it was paying out cost several times what the company was actually generating in cash flow. That is not a discount.
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