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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! April 29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: --- Today is Fed Day (2 PM and 2:30 PM ET)...--- Mag7 Earnings Day (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG after the close)...--- But the elephant in the room this morning is the continued sharp climb in the nearby June Crude Oil price to a 3-week high at 103.82, which represents a 31.5% upmove since the April 17th pullback low at 78.97 (from the 4/07/26 high at 114.
As I noted in my earlier update, the SPX is now approaching the 3.618 extension of waves i-ii off the end of March low. And, yes, this is extreme. But, there is still no clear indication that a top has been struck. Minimally, we would need to see a strong break down below 7320SPX to suggest that the blue wave 2 or the red a-wave is in progress.In the meantime, I have noted over the last week that the IWM may still be attempting to complete an ending diagonal, as outlined on the 60-minute IWM chart.
Last week, we saw the market finally move lower after a very extended move higher over the past month, opening the door for at least a local top to be in place. Today, we saw further downside follow-through, further opening the door for at least a local top to be in place at last week's high. While we still have some downside pivots that will need to break to further confirm that we have indeed put in a top, the action today, which has been corrective to the upside, is very much supportive of this case.
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