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Mike Paulenoff

Market Reaction To Hotter-Than-Expected PPI

PPI comes in hotter than expected, too!But 10-year YIELD, after knee-jerking to 5.10% from 5.08%, is now LOWER, at 5.06%... ignoring the relatively hot PPI data, and instead, apparently still fixating on the impact of the dressdown of the AI boom.The Equity Indices initially spiked lower-- to marginal new lows for this correction- but have recovered to where they were trading just before the PPI Report. That said, my near-term pattern work argues that unless and until ES climbs and sustains above 7795, strength off this AM's marginal new corrective low at 7728.

Does This Market Have Enough Gas Left in the Tank for Another Push Higher?

Today, we saw the market pull back relatively sharply after trading sideways for the better part of the last five trading sessions. While the pullback itself was not entirely unexpected, the velocity of the decline likely caught the attention of many traders after the market had seemingly put everyone to sleep over the past week.The question we now have at hand is whether this pullback marks the beginning of a larger corrective move to the downside or whether we are getting closer to finding yet another local bottom before making another push to new highs.

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 16th, 2026

Due to the size of this rally and the fact that it seems we only had 3 waves into the last low, I am going to modify the blue count to be a 4th wave with an expanded b-wave low.  That means this can still push a bit higher and still be wave (iv).  But, take note that if all we see is a corrective pullback from up here, and then break out through the 89.72 level, this opens the door in a big way to the correction having completed.  So, as long as we remain below 89.

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