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Mike Paulenoff

Benchmark 10-Year Yield Gaps Down On Ukraine News

Benchmark 10-year YIELD has gapped down to 4.33% from yesterday's high at 4.49% (and 4.51% last Friday), owing largely to a flight-to-safety in reaction to the Ukrainian attack on Russian territory using US-made missiles. Let's notice that today's weakness also has violated the dominant September-November up trendlineat 4.39%, which now becomes initial resistance on any rebound in YIELD from this AM's low at 4.33%. If YIELD is unable to claw its way back above 4.40% on a closing basis today, it will remain vulnerable to additional technical weakness that points next to a breach of the up-sloping 20 DMA, now providing support at 4.33%... Last is 4.36%...

Is The “Bounce” Completing

With the up-down action we have seen over the last two days, the market seems to have completed its [a] wave, and may even be close to completing its [b] wave as well.The only reservation that I have is how shallow this [b] wave would be, as we are only approaching the .382 retracement of the [a] wave decline.I do not have to make the analysis complex at this point, so I am going to keep this update short.

Market Still Waiting To Make A Decision

Today we saw the market move sharply lower after retracing higher yesterday. We failed to break the previous lows however and move higher into the afternoon session. Unfortunately, the price action both down off of the overnight high and off of today's low of the day is far from clear which is leaving the door open for this to still see a push a bit higher before any sort of significant breakdown is seen.

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