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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! March 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:It's tiring, isn't it? Investors and traders are hostage to constant headline risk from the Oil market specifically, and from the Trump Administration in general... Here is the current Oil vs. ES setup, expressed by my attached 15 Minutes Charts...What is the message this morning? -- As long as April Crude Oil is north of $90.00, the setup off yesterday's pullback low at $82.00 points higher toward a retest of the last eve's high at $95.97, and if taken out, then to $98-$100.
While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages. Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave. But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high. That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.
Overnight, we saw the market move lower in what is, so far, corrective wave action, following the general path and structure to the downside into the lower support zone that I outlined in yesterday’s update. With that in mind, we now need to see how the market reacts in this region and, more importantly, what the next move to the upside looks like from a structural perspective. That will help provide further guidance as to whether we ultimately see another lower low per the purple count, or if this market finds a bottom in the yellow wave (b).
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