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Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: This day has finally arrived! Fed Time!Let's take a look at some Big Picture Set-Ups to see if we can arrive at a directional reaction to whatever the Warsh Fed does and says between 2 PM and 3:30 PM ET today:Weekly 10-Year YIELD argues for upside continuation-- not necessarily immediately-- to 5.25%-5.50% before pivoting to the downside into a major correction. If that proves to be the case, then will upside continuation from 5% to 5.
While the metals have certainly provided us with a nice pullback thus far, I do not yet have enough evidence to strongly suggest that the pullback is complete and a 3rd wave rally has yet begun.Starting with the 60-minute gold chart, you will see that we bottomed this past week just over the support box. And, off that low, while we do not have an ideal Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure, we can make out a leading diagonal. Yes, I know those are not terribly reliable.
The instinct to look higher this morning was the correct one, but even I underestimated the strength of today's move over the regular trading hours session. Price is now above the .764 retrace as the last fib retracement measured from the decline off of the August high, and within a stone's throw of a new all-time high.Therefore, the probability of this rally off of last week's low being a corrective b-wave still has diminished further, and continues to drop off the closer price comes to a retest of the August high.
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