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Mike Paulenoff

Rising Oil Putting Upward Pressure On Yield

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  September 9, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- While we await the next round of PPI (Thursday) and CPI (Friday) Inflation Data, the elephant in the room is Crude Oil, which took out-- and is trading above-- $95.00, a key 4-month resistance plateau...My attached 4-hour chart shows the upside breakout price action that sits atop a potentially explosive Cup and Handle or Saucer Bottom technical structure that projects a next immediate target of $100, a secondary target of $110, and a tertiary target of $118 to $122. From a near-term technical perspective, to inflict some damage to the dominant post-8/26/26 upleg ($79.62 to $95.

Still Trying For A Bounce

With the deeper drop in gold this past week, it left me wondering if gold wanted to form an ending diagonal for the (c) wave, or if it was going to develop more of a b-wave within a larger (b) wave. As it stands right now, as long as the overnight low holds, we seem to be set up again for a c-wave rally to complete a more complex (b) wave.

Structure Remains Sloppy, but the Simpler Path Still Points Lower for Now

Today, the market moved lower once again; however, the action to the downside is far from what I would consider a clean and textbook impulsive move off of the 9/3 high. With that said, we are still following our fib pinball guidelines on this move down from that high, which is still suggestive that we are still working on our larger wave c of 3 as part of a larger ending diagonal off of the 8/28 high.

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