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Monthly QQQ Update:Apart from fundamental analysis, spin, and hype about the efficacy of AI use cases, funding, eventual revenues, and, yes, profitability, the Monthly Technical Setup in QQQ is warning us that, atop a 37% upmove from the March 2026 low, a 93% advance from the April 2023 low, and a 200% bull move from the October 2022 low, the price structure hit an ALL Time New High at 762.86 in October 2026, and during the same month, rolled over into a bout of weakness that left behind a MONTHLY Bearish Engulfing Candle!.
Today, we saw a very muted reaction off of the lows after yesterday's sharp drop lower. This reaction is certainly not a positive development for the green count, which needs to both hold the 7235 low and give us a five-wave move to the upside to remain operative. So, with the inability to provide us with that five-wave move, I have to move to the red count as my base case for the time being and adopt the green count as an alternate path.
It is really very nice that we are seeing a higher high in the GDX for a potential 5th wave for wave i. But, the problem is that if this gets too carried away, we could wind up getting an a=c rally off the low which would be more akin to the alternative wave 4 in yellow. Yet, it is quite large for the yellow count potential, but it would likely mean that we should be able to hold the 70 region if we are to see a 5th wave decline for the yellow wave count.
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