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Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! November 18, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: More of the same stair-step selling pressure that is threatening to invalidate my bullish Coil formation, which will morph the correction off of the ATH into a deeper, possibly total retracement of the upleg from the October 10 pivot low at 6540.25 to the October 30 ATH at 6953.75. The $64,000 question: Can or will the index (ES) regain some upside traction ahead of tomorrow eve's NVDA Earnings report?...
Today, price has spiked below the pivot. But, the action we are seeing after that spike is more of a "comeback" so far than it is a follow through. The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside set up that has developed, which should mean that a heart of a 3rd wave down should be in progress. That means that once the market breaks down below the pivot between the .618-764 extensions of waves 1-2, and drops to the 1.00 extension or lower, then the likelihood resides with the 3rd wave down.
Now that is an intriguing combination. Let’s examine the fundamental foundation, and then see how crowd behavior may determine the pathway ahead.Lyn Alden recently shared this snapshot regarding APD:“APD has a wide economic moat and a strong balance sheet in a key industry. Over the past 5-6 years, it became rather richly valued, and the stock price ended up consolidating sideways while fundamentals kept inching higher, relieving that rich valuation. The stock is now trading at approximately its 20-year average valuation.Going forward, I'm moderately bullish on the company, but the key risk is around growth.
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