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Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! March 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:It's tiring, isn't it? Investors and traders are hostage to constant headline risk from the Oil market specifically, and from the Trump Administration in general... Here is the current Oil vs. ES setup, expressed by my attached 15 Minutes Charts...What is the message this morning? -- As long as April Crude Oil is north of $90.00, the setup off yesterday's pullback low at $82.00 points higher toward a retest of the last eve's high at $95.97, and if taken out, then to $98-$100.
After several sessions of very high intraday volatility, the market is taking a bit of a breather today, currently down less than 1/2 of a percent at the time of this writing. We are still sitting over support but remain under the next key pivot/resistance level. A break of either of these levels should help provide further guidance as to whether the market still has another lower low to go to finish off this initial move down, or whether Monday’s low may already represent at least a local bottom.
While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages. Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave. But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high. That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.
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