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Precious Metals and the U.S. Dollar (DXY):I keep thinking that the 3% plunge in Gold (GLD) and the near 5% plunge in Silver (SLV) are a liquidation event into the end of the quarter in reaction to last week's parabolic spike in 10-year YIELD from 4.93% to 5.23%. A risk-off reflex action ahead of the start of Q4...That said, however, I also think that Wednesday's PCE Inflation report for August is the next significant headline risk (reward) for precious metals. If PCE comes in cooler than expected, then YIELD and the Dollar should moderate and the PMs should catch a bid.
Lay a ruler across a map of Brazil and it will tell you how far apart two cities are. What it won't tell you is how to get from one to the other. And it has no idea where you're standing.MercadoLibre (MELI) sold 795 million items across Latin America in the second quarter. We'd guess not a single one traveled the ruler's line. Packages follow roads, and roads bend.Most of the tools we reach for on a chart work a lot like that ruler. They measure well. They don't orient.
With today’s drop to lower lows during this pullback, I think the market is taking the ending diagonal path to complete the c-wave of the (y) wave in a bigger b-wave pullback. Yes, I know, this structure has gotten quite complex.But, even within this complex structure, the ideal path suggests one more low to the 7632-7643ES region. Let me explain.If this is indeed an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (y) wave, today we bottomed at the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii in that structure, which is typical for wave iii in a diagonal.
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